Septemvri Simitli vs Oborishte Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Oborishte a 50% draw-or-win double chance with the remaining 50% assigned to a draw and 0% to a Septemvri Simitli win, so the advice is effectively a call that the home side will not take all three points. That stance is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Oborishte leads across form (87 versus 13), attack (63 versus 37), defence (76 versus 24), Poisson (79 versus 21), head-to-head (75 versus 25), goals (63 versus 38) and total (73.8 versus 26.3). The team analysis explains part of that gap: Oborishte are unbeaten in eight with five wins and three draws, while Septemvri Simitli have two wins, three draws and three defeats, including a recent run of two losses and two draws. Oborishte's goal profile is also stronger, averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded, whereas Septemvri Simitli average 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, with their away defensive record particularly vulnerable at 2.30 goals against per away match. The last-five records sharpen the contrast, as Oborishte have won four and drawn one, scoring 12 and conceding four, while Septemvri Simitli have lost three, drawn two and conceded 13. The head-to-head record is more mixed than the aggregate 75-25 split suggests, since the last six meetings include three draws and only one Oborishte win, although Oborishte did win the most recent encounter 2-1 in February 2026. That recent head-to-head result and Oborishte's unbeaten league form jointly support the double-chance advice, but the high draw share in this fixture and Septemvri Simitli's two home draws mean the draw component should not be dismissed. The goals analysis adds a further qualifier: Oborishte's matches have stayed under 2.5 goals in four of eight, and their defensive numbers are strong enough that a low-scoring draw is plausible. Overall, the evidence points more clearly to Oborishte avoiding defeat than to a comfortable away win, which is consistent with the model's 50% draw-or-Oborishte probability and its 0% home-win probability.

Predicted winner

Oborishte

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Oborishte

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Oborishte 2–1 Septemvri Simitli (21 Feb 2026)
2. Septemvri Simitli 1–1 Oborishte (16 Aug 2025)
3. Oborishte 0–0 Septemvri Simitli (26 Feb 2025)
4. Septemvri Simitli 0–1 Oborishte (03 Aug 2024)
5. Septemvri Simitli 1–1 Oborishte (01 May 2024)