Segesta Sisak vs Karlovac 1919 Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on Segesta Sisak or draw, with home and draw probabilities level at 35% each against 30% for a Karlovac 1919 win, so the advice reflects a marginal rather than decisive edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where form and defence are dead level at 50.00 apiece and goals also sit at 50.00–50.00, while Karlovac actually lead on attack (58.00 vs 42.00) and head-to-head (60.00 vs 40.00). The one metric that strongly favours the home side is the Poisson figure of 86.00 against 14.00, which is a much larger gap than the modest probability split implies and may be doing most of the work behind the prediction. Segesta's six-match record of three wins, one draw and two defeats is built on home solidity, with two home wins, no home losses, five home goals scored and only two conceded, whereas their away form shows two defeats and five goals against. Karlovac's identical six-match tally of two wins, one draw and three defeats is far more lopsided, since both wins and all five home goals came at home, while away they have no wins, one draw, two losses, two goals scored and six conceded. The last-five records echo that split: Segesta have won three of five, including 3-1 and 2-1 home wins plus a 3-1 away win, but also lost 2-0 away and drew 0-0 at home, while Karlovac have won two of five, with a 2-0 away win at Bjelovar and a 3-1 home win, but three defeats in which they failed to score twice. The goals analysis adds nuance, as Segesta average 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded overall with a notably low 0.70 conceded at home, whereas Karlovac average 1.20 scored but 1.50 conceded, including 2.00 per away game, and neither side has exceeded 2.5 goals in more than two of six matches. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the home lean, since Karlovac lead it 60.00 to 40.00 and the ten meetings include a 4-0 Segesta friendly win in July 2026 but also a 1-0 Karlovac friendly win in February 2026 and several Karlovac victories, including 4-0 and 4-1 at home. Overall, the home side's defensive record and the Poisson gap support the double chance, but the level form and goals metrics, Karlovac's superior attack and head-to-head edge, and the visitors' poor away scoring make this a genuinely uncertain fixture rather than a comfortable home call.

Predicted winner

Segesta Sisak

Betting advice

Double chance : Segesta Sisak or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Segesta Sisak 4–0 Karlovac 1919 (18 Jul 2026)
2. Segesta Sisak 0–1 Karlovac 1919 (07 Feb 2026)
3. Karlovac 1919 4–0 Segesta Sisak (28 Feb 2025)
4. Segesta Sisak 4–2 Karlovac 1919 (31 Aug 2024)
5. Karlovac 1919 1–0 Segesta Sisak (13 May 2023)