SD Logroñés vs Olot Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Olot with a double-chance draw-or-Olot advice, expressed as 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for SD Logroñés, so the central question is whether the evidence justifies such a strong tilt away from the home side. The comparison metrics support that tilt in form (67 versus 33) and attack (56 versus 44), and especially in the Poisson calculation (81 versus 19), while defence is dead level at 50–50 and the head-to-head, goals, and total columns are all empty, meaning those dimensions neither reinforce nor contradict the advice. Olot's overall record of one win, one draw, and one loss in three matches is marginally better than Logroñés's two draws and one defeat, and Olot's away form is the clearest differentiator, with a 2–1 win at Náxara contrasting Logroñés's single away draw. Both teams' goals analysis shows identical defensive leakage of five goals conceded at 1.70 per game, which undercuts any assumption that Olot's edge is defensive and suggests the separation is more about scoring and timing. Olot have scored five goals at 1.70 per game with a notable 40% of them in the 61–75 minute window, whereas Logroñés have scored four at 1.30 per game split evenly between the 31–45 and 76–90 periods, hinting at a modest attacking and late-game edge for the visitors. The last-five records add nuance: Logroñés's recent competitive run is D–D–L with 2–2, 1–1, and 1–2 scorelines, while Olot's is L–W–D with a 1–2 home loss to Utebo, a 2–1 away win, and a 2–2 home draw, plus older friendlies that are less informative. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in the sample and neither has failed to score, so both defensive records look porous and both attacks functional, which is consistent with the draw component of the advice but also leaves the away win plausible. The absence of any head-to-head record means the model's confidence rests on a three-match form sample and a Poisson split that is far more extreme than the modest gaps in form and attack, so the 45–45 draw-or-away split should be read as a cautious lean rather than a firm separation. Overall, the evidence jointly supports the draw-or-Olot advice through Olot's better form, away result, and attacking output, but the small sample, equal defensive numbers, and missing head-to-head data qualify that support and keep the home side's 10% probability from being fully dismissed.

Predicted winner

Olot

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Olot

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.