Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Scunthorpe a 45% home win and 45% draw against Hartlepool, leaving only a 10% away win, so the "Scunthorpe or draw" double chance reflects a strongly two-sided but home-leaning outlook. That view is only partly echoed by the comparison metrics: form is level at 50.00 each and head-to-head and goals are also split 50/50, while Scunthorpe's clear edges come from attack (63.00 vs 38.00), defence (47.00 vs 53.00), Poisson (63.00 vs 37.00) and the overall total (53.80 vs 46.30). The team analysis complicates the picture, because both sides have lost six of nine, Scunthorpe's form string DLLWLLWLL includes only two wins and one draw, and Hartlepool's WWLLLWLLL contains three wins but no draws at all. Scunthorpe's goal profile is slightly more productive (11 scored, 1.20 per game) than Hartlepool's (7 scored, 0.80 per game), yet Scunthorpe also concede more overall (15 against, 1.70 per game) than Hartlepool (11 against, 1.20 per game), which qualifies the defensive metric advantage. Hartlepool's three clean sheets to Scunthorpe's one suggest a lower-variance defensive record, although Hartlepool have failed to score three times and average only 0.60 goals away, so their attacking threat looks limited. The last-five records reinforce the inconsistency: Scunthorpe have W-W-L-L-L with two 2-0/2-1 wins followed by three defeats, while Hartlepool have L-L-L-L-W, losing four straight before a 1-0 win over Woking. The head-to-head record is the most draw-heavy evidence, with four of the last ten meetings drawn, including the most recent 0-0 at Attis Arena and a 1-1 in 2022, while Scunthorpe's 2-1 away win in December 2025 is the only recent competitive away success in this sequence. Taken together, the probabilities, Poisson and attack metrics point toward Scunthorpe avoiding defeat, but the level form, shared goal metrics, Hartlepool's clean-sheet tendency and the high draw rate in this fixture mean the draw half of the double chance carries substantial support rather than being a mere fallback.

Predicted winner

Scunthorpe

Betting advice

Double chance : Scunthorpe or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Scunthorpe 0–0 Hartlepool (03 Apr 2026)
2. Hartlepool 1–2 Scunthorpe (26 Dec 2025)
3. Hartlepool 2–1 Scunthorpe (30 Jul 2024)
4. Scunthorpe 1–1 Hartlepool (30 Apr 2022)
5. Hartlepool 0–0 Scunthorpe (11 Dec 2021)