Sarriana vs Celta de Vigo III Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Sarriana a 45% home win chance and the draw the same 45%, leaving Celta de Vigo III at just 10%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Sarriana or draw rather than a straight home win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Sarriana lead on form (60.00 vs 40.00), attack (63.00 vs 38.00) and the Poisson measure (100.00 vs 0.00), yet the two sides are level on defence at 50.00 and Celta actually edge the head-to-head score (62.00 vs 38.00) and the goals metric (60.00 vs 40.00). The overall totals are almost identical, 50.20 for Sarriana against 50.00 for Celta, which suggests the model sees a genuinely close contest rather than a clear home advantage. Sarriana's three league games produced two wins and one loss, including a 2-0 home win over Viveiro and a 3-1 away win at Estradense before a 2-0 defeat at Alondras, so their form is positive but built on a very small sample. Their goals analysis reinforces that split, with 5 goals scored at 1.70 per game and only 3 conceded at 1.00 per game, and notably all 3 concessions came after half-time, two of them in the 76-90 window. Celta's record is less convincing, one win, one draw and one loss, with a 0-0 home draw against Antela and a 1-2 home defeat to Lalin offset by a 2-1 away win at Pontevedra II, and their 3 goals scored and 3 conceded both average 1.00 per game. Their goal timing is also lopsided, with all 3 goals scored in the 16-45 period and all 3 conceded between the 61st and 90th minutes, hinting at a side that fades late. The last-five records add a note of caution about recency, since Sarriana's two most recent entries before this season are defeats (3-4 at home to Racing Santander II and 0-1 at Atlético Astorga), while Celta's include a 5-1 away win at Noia and a 4-1 home win over Villalbés from the previous campaign. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the home-favouring advice, as Celta won the most recent meeting 3-1 and also beat Sarriana 4-1 in the 2024 promotion play-offs, although Sarriana's own 3-1 win in October 2024 and three draws in the sequence show the fixture has swung both ways. Taken together, the evidence supports the double chance as a hedge rather than a confident home selection, because Sarriana's superior form and attack are offset by Celta's head-to-head edge, near-identical totals and the very limited number of matches behind these numbers.

Predicted winner

Sarriana

Betting advice

Double chance : Sarriana or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Celta de Vigo III 1–3 Sarriana (23 Feb 2025)
2. Sarriana 1–3 Celta de Vigo III (13 Oct 2024)
3. Celta de Vigo III 4–1 Sarriana (26 May 2024)
4. Sarriana 0–0 Celta de Vigo III (18 May 2024)
5. Sarriana 1–1 Celta de Vigo III (28 Jan 2024)