Sarpsborg 08 II vs Gjøvik-Lyn Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Gjøvik-Lyn a double-chance edge over Sarpsborg 08 II, with draw and away each at 45% and a home win at only 10%, so the advice is essentially a bet against a Sarpsborg victory rather than a strong call on Gjøvik-Lyn winning. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Gjøvik-Lyn leads on defence (65 vs 35), head-to-head (100 vs 0), goals (100 vs 0) and Poisson (43 vs 57 in Sarpsborg's favour), while Sarpsborg leads on form (63 vs 38) and attack (57 vs 43), leaving the aggregate totals nearly level at 53.00 to 47.30. The form strings sharpen this tension: Sarpsborg's recent run includes a 3-1 win over Lillehammer and a 4-3 win at Ørn Horten before a 2-2 draw at Lyn II, whereas Gjøvik-Lyn's last five mix a 5-0 home win over Brumunddal and a 2-0 win over Lyn II with a 7-2 home loss to Eidsvold and a 2-3 defeat at Drøbak/Frogn. Gjøvik-Lyn's season profile is the more convincing overall, with 11 wins from 20 and 12 clean sheets, but their away record is only four wins and five defeats from ten, which qualifies the double chance since the draw leg carries much of the value. Sarpsborg's home form is notably stronger than their away form, with six home wins and no home draws from nine, yet their defensive numbers are poor: 47 goals conceded at 2.40 per game, including 32 away at 2.90, and they have kept only two clean sheets all season. Gjøvik-Lyn's defence is the standout statistic, conceding just 17 goals at 0.90 per game with only five at home, and their goals-against distribution shows no more than four goals in any single 15-minute window, suggesting a structurally solid back line rather than a lucky run. The goals analysis also shows Sarpsborg scoring 46 at 2.30 per game but conceding heavily, while Gjøvik-Lyn score only 29 at 1.50, so the match may hinge on whether Sarpsborg's attack can breach a defence that has allowed three or more goals only three times in twenty matches. The head-to-head record is a single 1-0 Gjøvik-Lyn home win in May 2026, which supports the away side but is too small a sample to carry much weight on its own, and the 100% head-to-head and goals scores in the comparison are derived from that one result. Overall, the evidence points to a low-scoring, defensively controlled game in which Gjøvik-Lyn are the more reliable side, but Sarpsborg's home advantage and superior form mean the draw leg of the double chance is doing meaningful work rather than the prediction being a straightforward away win.

Predicted winner

Gjøvik-Lyn

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Gjøvik-Lyn

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Gjøvik-Lyn 1–0 Sarpsborg 08 II (10 May 2026)