Sarnese vs Paganese Prediction
Match prediction
- Paganese's stronger attack and Poisson ratings, plus a decisive head-to-head edge, support the model's lean toward the away side.
- Sarnese's unbeaten five-match form and stingy defence qualify that lean, explaining why the draw carries equal probability to a Paganese win.
- The combined 45% draw and 45% away probabilities justify the double-chance advice rather than a straight Paganese selection.
- Both teams scoring in nearly every recent outing, with Paganese's away goals averaging high, supports the +1.5 goals component.
- Sarnese's low home scoring but solid defence suggests a tight contest, keeping the goals line modest rather than high.
- Recent head-to-head meetings were mostly low-scoring and decided by single goals, tempering expectations for a large margin.
- Predicted winner
- Paganese
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : draw or Paganese and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Sarnese | Paganese |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Attack | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Defence | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Poisson | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| H2h | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Goals | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Total | 43.7% | 56.3% |
Team form and goal analysis
Sarnese
Recent form: WDWWD.
Average goals scored: 1.80 per match.
Paganese
Recent form: WWDWL.
Average goals scored: 2.60 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Sarnese 1–1 Paganese (22 Feb 2026)
- Paganese 2–1 Sarnese (19 Oct 2025)
- Sarnese 1–0 Paganese (13 Apr 2025)
- Paganese 1–0 Sarnese (01 Dec 2024)
- Sarnese 1–2 Paganese (01 Sep 2024)