Sárbogárd vs Budaörs Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Budaörs avoiding defeat, with a 45% draw and 45% away-win split against only 10% for Sárbogárd, and the advice combines that double chance with over 1.5 goals. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Budaörs lead on form (60 vs 40), attack (60 vs 40), Poisson (56 vs 44), goals (67 vs 33) and total (57 vs 43), while Sárbogárd's only clear edge is defence at 58 vs 42. The head-to-head comparison is the most extreme input, showing 100% in Budaörs' favour, but it rests on a single 2024 Magyar Kupa meeting that Budaörs won 2-1 away, so it should be treated as a small-sample signal rather than a durable pattern. Sárbogárd's form line of LLLLDLWL and a four-match losing streak inside a season of one win, one draw and six defeats in eight games support the low home probability, and their defensive record is undermined by 19 goals conceded at 2.40 per game with no clean sheets. Budaörs' DLWWLLLW is only moderately better, yet their three wins all came at home, they have failed to score just once, and their 15 goals at 1.90 per game give them the more reliable attacking base. The goals analysis adds nuance: Budaörs average 3.10 conceded per game overall because of a 5.00 away figure inflated by a 7-0 loss, while Sárbogárd concede heavily early, with 26.32% of goals against in the opening 15 minutes and another 26.32% in the 31-45 band. Both last-five records show volatility rather than control, as Sárbogárd's sequence includes a 3-4 loss and a 0-3 defeat alongside a 2-1 win, and Budaörs mix a 5-1 win with a 1-4 loss and a 1-6 defeat. The over 1.5 component therefore looks plausible given that Sárbogárd have gone over 1.5 goals against in four of eight matches and Budaörs in five of eight, though the draw share of the prediction remains a genuine qualification because Budaörs have won none of their four away fixtures.

Predicted winner

Budaörs

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Budaörs and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Sárbogárd 1–2 Budaörs (04 Aug 2024)