São Paulo W vs Corinthians W Prediction
· Estadio do Caninde
Match prediction
- The model's even 45-45 split between home and draw, with only 10% for Corinthians, frames the double chance as the safer expression of a genuinely tight fixture.
- São Paulo's superior defensive score and 0.40 home goals-against average support the low-scoring half of the advice more than any attacking edge.
- Corinthians' 62-38 head-to-head advantage and recent 2-1 win over São Paulo qualify the home lean, explaining why the draw carries equal probability.
- Both teams' last five produced almost exclusively low-scoring results, reinforcing the under 3.5 goals component of the combination.
- São Paulo's 21 of 22 matches under 3.5 goals and Corinthians' 17 of 22 make a high-scoring outcome statistically unlikely.
- Corinthians' perfect scoring record across 22 matches suggests they can contribute, but their modest away scoring tempers any expectation of a goal-heavy game.
- Predicted winner
- São Paulo W
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : São Paulo W or draw and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | São Paulo W | Corinthians W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Attack | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Defence | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Poisson | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| H2h | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Goals | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Total | 51.8% | 48.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
São Paulo W
Recent form: WWLDWWWDWLWWWWWWWDWWWW.
Average goals scored: 1.80 per match.
Corinthians W
Recent form: WDLWWWWWWWLWWWWDLWWWWL.
Average goals scored: 2.20 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Corinthians W 1–2 São Paulo W (26 Sep 2026)
- Corinthians W 2–1 São Paulo W (12 May 2026)
- Corinthians W 2–2 São Paulo W (31 Aug 2025)
- São Paulo W 0–2 Corinthians W (24 Aug 2025)
- São Paulo W 1–1 Corinthians W (26 Apr 2025)