Sao Paulo vs Santos Prediction
· Estadio Do MorumBIS
Match prediction
- The model's 45% draw and 45% Santos probabilities justify the double-chance advice, though Sao Paulo's mere 10% win share understates its strong home record.
- Sao Paulo's 8 home wins against only 2 away wins reveal a pronounced home-away split that conflicts with the low home win probability.
- Santos's superior form and attack metrics, plus its recent five-match run of four wins, support the away side's elevated probability.
- Sao Paulo's defence concedes most goals after halftime, while Santos scores heavily late, suggesting the visitors can exploit that second-half window.
- Head-to-head is perfectly balanced at 50-50 and recent meetings were tight, reinforcing draw coverage rather than a decisive Santos win.
- Both teams' goal totals cluster under 2.5, so the double chance carries lower variance than a straight Santos victory would.
- Predicted winner
- Santos
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Santos
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Sao Paulo | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Attack | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Defence | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Poisson | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Total | 49.2% | 50.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
Sao Paulo
Recent form: WDWWWWLLDWLLWDLLDLLDLDLWWLW.
Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.
Santos
Recent form: LDLWDDLDWLWLDDWLLWLDLWDWWWW.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Santos 1–1 Sao Paulo (05 Feb 2026)
- Sao Paulo 2–0 Santos (01 Feb 2026)
- Santos 1–0 Sao Paulo (22 Sep 2025)
- Sao Paulo 2–1 Santos (20 Apr 2025)
- Santos 3–1 Sao Paulo (02 Feb 2025)