Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on Santurtzi or draw, with home and draw each at 45% and Lagun Onak at just 10%, so the advice reflects a broadly even split between the two most likely outcomes rather than a clear home edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Lagun Onak actually leads on form (57.00 versus 43.00) and defence (63.00 versus 38.00), while attack is level at 50.00 and Santurtzi's 100.00 Poisson score against 0.00 is the single most extreme value in the dataset. The head-to-head and goals splits both favour Santurtzi at 60.00 versus 40.00, and the overall totals are nearly identical (50.20 versus 50.00), which suggests the model's home lean rests on historical and scoring patterns rather than current form or defensive strength. Santurtzi's three league matches produced one home win and two away defeats, with both losses coming without a goal, so their 2-1 win over Durango is the only evidence of attacking output and it came at home. Lagun Onak's three matches yielded a home win, a home draw and an away loss, and their defensive record is notably split: 0.50 goals conceded per home game against 2.00 away, mirroring the same home-away divide in their scoring. The goals analysis shows both teams have scored only twice in three games, with Santurtzi's goals arriving entirely in the 16-30 window and Lagun Onak's split between the 16-30 and 76-90 periods, while Santurtzi have conceded in every match and Lagun Onak kept one clean sheet at home. The last-five records extend this pattern: Santurtzi have lost four of five, including heavy away defeats to Eibar III and Durango, whereas Lagun Onak's recent run includes a 1-0 home win over San Ignacio plus two draws, though their away form shows a 2-0 loss at Real Sociedad III and a 2-0 loss at Derio. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the form data, as Lagun Onak won the two most recent meetings and four of the last five, including a 1-0 win at Santurtzi's ground in March 2026, with Santurtzi's last victory in this fixture dating back to January 2021. Taken together, the evidence supports the double chance only weakly: the model's 45% draw probability acknowledges that neither side's current profile is convincing, and the 10% away figure sits awkwardly against Lagun Onak's superior form, defence and recent head-to-head dominance.

Predicted winner

Santurtzi

Betting advice

Double chance : Santurtzi or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Santurtzi 0–1 Lagun Onak (28 Mar 2026)
2. Lagun Onak 1–2 Santurtzi (16 Nov 2025)
3. Lagun Onak 1–4 Santurtzi (10 May 2025)
4. Santurtzi 2–3 Lagun Onak (12 Jan 2025)
5. Santurtzi 1–0 Lagun Onak (16 Jan 2021)