Santos vs Flamengo Prediction
· Estadio Urbano Caldeira
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : draw or Flamengo
Match prediction
- Flamengo's far stronger defence and superior goal difference justify favouring them, though Santos's home advantage and recent wins keep the draw plausible.
- The model's equal 45% split between away win and draw directly supports the double-chance advice rather than a straight Flamengo win.
- Flamengo's 18 wins against Santos's 11, plus 12 clean sheets to six, show a clear quality gap that the low home-win probability reflects.
- Head-to-head favours Flamengo at 60%, but Santos won the most recent meeting at this venue, tempering any assumption of away dominance.
- Both teams' identical recent form scores and similar last-five results suggest momentum is balanced, reinforcing the draw component of the advice.
- Flamengo's 0.80 goals-against average versus Santos's 1.50 indicates defensive superiority, supporting the away side's higher overall rating.
- Predicted winner
- Flamengo
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Flamengo
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Santos | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Poisson | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| H2h | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Goals | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Total | 40.3% | 59.7% |
Team form and goal analysis
Santos
Recent form: LDLWDDLDWLWLDDWLLWLDLWDWWWWW.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Flamengo
Recent form: LDWWWWDLWWWWDWDLWWDDWWLWWWWW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Flamengo 3–1 Santos (05 Apr 2026)
- Flamengo 3–2 Santos (09 Nov 2025)
- Santos 1–0 Flamengo (17 Jul 2025)
- Flamengo 1–2 Santos (02 Nov 2023)
- Santos 2–3 Flamengo (25 Jun 2023)