Santanyí vs Mercadal Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Santanyí a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against Mercadal, leaving only 10% for an away win, which is why the advice combines a Santanyí-or-draw double chance with under 3.5 goals. That cautious lean is supported by the form comparison, where Santanyí's 56.00 outweighs Mercadal's 44.00, and by the defensive split, where Santanyí's 60.00 clearly exceeds Mercadal's 40.00, even though Mercadal's attack rating of 57.00 is stronger than Santanyí's 43.00. The Poisson metric is the sharpest internal conflict, showing 0.00 for Santanyí and 100.00 for Mercadal, which sits awkwardly beside the home-favouring probabilities and suggests the model's components are not fully aligned. Both teams' three-match league records are nearly identical in outcome terms, with Santanyí on DDW and Mercadal on DWL, but their goal profiles differ: Santanyí have scored 3 and conceded 2, while Mercadal have scored 4 but conceded 3, all of Mercadal's goals against coming at home. The goals analysis reinforces the low-scoring expectation, since neither side has gone over 2.5 goals in any of their three matches, and Santanyí's goals are spread across the 16-30, 61-75 and 76-90 windows rather than concentrated. The last-five records add a note of caution about the small sample: Santanyí's sequence includes two wins, two draws and a loss, while Mercadal's includes a 7-0 away defeat to Mallorca II from May alongside more recent wins over Inter Ibiza and Alcúdia. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the home lean, as Mercadal won the most recent meeting 1-0 in January 2026 and have won three of the last five encounters, although Santanyí's 3-0 home win in September 2025 shows the fixture can swing sharply. Overall, the evidence supports a low-scoring, closely contested match where the double chance is more defensible than a straight home win, but the Poisson split, Mercadal's superior attack rating and their recent head-to-head edge mean the 10% away probability looks like the least secure part of the model's output.

Predicted winner

Santanyí

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Santanyí or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Mercadal 1–0 Santanyí (25 Jan 2026)
2. Santanyí 3–0 Mercadal (13 Sep 2025)
3. Mercadal 3–2 Santanyí (19 Jan 2025)
4. Santanyí 2–0 Mercadal (07 Sep 2024)
5. Santanyí 1–0 Mercadal (06 Apr 2024)