San Telmo vs Almirante Brown Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% draw and 45% Almirante Brown split, with only 10% for San Telmo, justifies the double-chance advice despite San Telmo's stronger recent form.
• Almirante Brown's 85% head-to-head edge and 67% defensive rating outweigh San Telmo's 75% attack rating, supporting the away-or-draw lean.
• Both teams' goal data show no match exceeding 3.5 goals, reinforcing the under 3.5 component of the advice.
• Almirante Brown's last five produced just one goal total, while San Telmo's recent matches stayed low-scoring, supporting the goals ceiling.
• San Telmo's superior form and attack metrics conflict with the head-to-head and Poisson edge, explaining why the draw carries equal probability to an away win.
• Almirante Brown's 18 clean sheets and 0.60 goals-against average make a low-scoring away result or draw the most plausible outcome.

Predicted winner

Almirante Brown

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Almirante Brown and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Almirante Brown 0–0 San Telmo (16 May 2026)
2. Almirante Brown 1–0 San Telmo (08 Sep 2025)
3. San Telmo 0–1 Almirante Brown (03 May 2025)
4. San Telmo 0–1 Almirante Brown (05 Oct 2024)
5. Almirante Brown 0–0 San Telmo (20 May 2024)