San Martín vs Astur Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward San Martín via a double-chance “win or draw” call, but its own probabilities are nearly flat at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice reflects a marginal edge rather than a clear favourite. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where San Martín’s form score of 100.00 against Astur’s 0.00 is the strongest split, yet attack is level at 50.00 apiece and the Poisson and head-to-head columns are empty or neutral, meaning the form gap is not corroborated by the other model inputs. The defensive comparison is similarly tight, with San Martín at 46.00 and Astur at 54.00, while the total scores of 48.00 and 52.00 leave the overall picture almost balanced. Both teams’ performance data describe a three-match sample without a win: San Martín’s LLD includes a 0-4 home loss to Condal and a 2-0 away defeat at Gijón Industrial, and Astur’s LLL includes a 0-3 home loss to Caudal and a 2-1 away loss at Colunga. The goals analysis shows how little either side has produced, with San Martín averaging 0.30 goals per game and Astur matching that 0.30 total, while San Martín’s defensive average of 2.30 conceded is slightly worse than Astur’s 2.00. San Martín’s only goal came in the 16-30 window, whereas Astur’s sole strike arrived in the 76-90 window, and Astur’s concession pattern is front-loaded with three of six goals against inside the first 15 minutes. The last-five records extend the picture beyond the current league sample: San Martín add a 1-0 home win over Llanes and a 0-2 loss at Sporting Gijón II, while Astur’s sequence includes a 1-4 home loss to Valladolid and a 2-0 home win over Promesas EDF from October 2024, so those older results are of limited relevance. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no direct meeting evidence to support or undermine the double-chance advice. Taken together, the form and defensive metrics give San Martín a slight reason for the win-or-draw call, but the level attack scores, the Poisson and goals columns, and both teams’ failure to win in three attempts suggest the draw component is doing most of the work and the edge remains fragile.

Predicted winner

San Martín

Betting advice

Double chance : San Martín or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.