Argentina · Primera B Metropolitana
San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino de Merlo Prediction
· Francisco Boga Stadium
Match prediction
- The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, since away win risk is only 10%.
- San Martín Burzaco's superior form and attack ratings, plus a 56.2 total comparison edge, support favoring them despite equal head-to-head splits.
- Both teams' goal profiles show almost every match staying under 3.5, reinforcing the -3.5 goals component of the advice.
- Argentino de Merlo's weak attack and frequent failures to score limit their upset potential, though their defence rating slightly exceeds the home side's.
- Recent form favors San Martín Burzaco, but their last five include two losses, so the draw probability reflects genuine uncertainty.
- The head-to-head record is evenly split with low-scoring outcomes, which qualifies the home advantage and supports the cautious double-chance selection.
- Predicted winner
- San Martín Burzaco
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : San Martín Burzaco or draw and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | San Martín Burzaco | Argentino de Merlo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| Attack | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Defence | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Poisson | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Total | 56.2% | 43.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
San Martín Burzaco
Recent form: LDDWDWDWDLLDDWLWWWLLDDDDWLLDLDLWLDWWL.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Argentino de Merlo
Recent form: LWWWDWLWLDLLDLDLLWDDWWDWLDLLWDDLDLLWL.
Average goals scored: 0.90 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Argentino de Merlo 0–1 San Martín Burzaco (23 May 2026)
- San Martín Burzaco 3–0 Argentino de Merlo (30 Aug 2025)
- Argentino de Merlo 2–0 San Martín Burzaco (13 Apr 2025)
- Argentino de Merlo 3–1 San Martín Burzaco (22 Jun 2024)
- San Martín Burzaco 0–0 Argentino de Merlo (03 Feb 2024)