San Ignacio vs Pasaia KE Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Pasaia KE a 45% chance of winning and San Ignacio only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Pasaia KE rather than a straight away win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Pasaia KE leads clearly on form (67 versus 33), head-to-head (85 versus 15), goals (83 versus 17) and overall total (65 versus 35), while attack and defence are dead level at 50 each and the Poisson split is a much narrower 55 to 45. The head-to-head record explains much of that gap, since Pasaia KE have won four of the last ten meetings and San Ignacio only three, with three draws, and Pasaia KE have taken points in six of the last seven encounters including a 2-0 win at San Ignacio in February 2026. Recent form is less one-sided than the aggregate suggests, however, because San Ignacio's last five include two wins, two draws and only one defeat, whereas Pasaia KE's last five read one win, one draw and three defeats. Both teams' performance analysis covers just three league fixtures each, a small sample in which San Ignacio are unbeaten at home with one draw and Pasaia KE have one home win, one home loss and one away draw. The goals analysis shows near-identical output, with each side scoring four goals at 1.30 per game, but San Ignacio concede 1.70 per game overall against Pasaia KE's identical 1.70, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. San Ignacio's goals are heavily concentrated in the 16-30 minute window, while Pasaia KE spread their four goals evenly across four different periods, and Pasaia KE have conceded in every match, including two games with two or more goals against. The fixture is listed as not started with no venue or score available, so the prediction rests entirely on these historical and comparative inputs rather than any confirmed match context. On balance, the head-to-head and form metrics justify favouring Pasaia KE, but the level attack, defence and goal averages, plus San Ignacio's stronger recent results, mean the draw component of the double chance carries real weight.

Predicted winner

Pasaia KE

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Pasaia KE

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. San Ignacio 0–2 Pasaia KE (22 Feb 2026)
2. Pasaia KE 1–1 San Ignacio (11 Oct 2025)
3. Pasaia KE 0–0 San Ignacio (15 Mar 2025)
4. San Ignacio 0–1 Pasaia KE (01 Nov 2024)
5. Pasaia KE 1–0 San Ignacio (20 Apr 2024)