San Clemente vs Villacañas Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw or Villacañas win, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% for both draw and away victory against only 10% for a San Clemente win, and the advice combines that double chance with a -3.5 goals line. That stance is broadly reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Villacañas leads on form (67 vs 33), attack (60 vs 40), defence (75 vs 25), goals (70 vs 30) and overall total (66.8 vs 33.2), while the head-to-head split of 62 to 38 also favours the visitors. The one clear counter-signal is the Poisson metric, which reads 100 for San Clemente and 0 for Villacañas, a stark contradiction that suggests the model's goal-expectation component is not aligned with the other indicators and should temper confidence in the pick. San Clemente's own record is winless across three fixtures with two draws and one loss, and their defensive numbers are poor: they have conceded six goals in total, including a 4-0 defeat at La Solana and another 4-1 loss to the same opponent in their last five. Villacañas are more mixed, with one win, one draw and one loss in their three league games, but their defensive profile is far stronger, having kept two clean sheets at home and conceded only twice in total, both away from home. Their last five results show the same pattern of low-scoring solidity, featuring a 3-0 home win over Huracán Balazote, a 0-0 draw with Almansa, a 2-0 away loss to Manchego, and two further goalless or one-goal draws. The goals analysis supports the -3.5 under component, since neither side has exceeded 3.5 goals in any of their matches, and Villacañas have scored only three goals in three games while San Clemente have managed just two. The head-to-head record is the most balanced evidence, with six meetings producing two Villacañas wins, one San Clemente win and three draws, including a 2-2 draw in the most recent meeting in February 2026 and a 1-0 Villacañas away win in September 2025. Overall, the weight of form, defensive and goals evidence points toward a low-scoring match where Villacañas are the more likely side to avoid defeat, but the Poisson anomaly and the historically draw-heavy head-to-head record mean the draw half of the double chance carries real justification rather than being a mere hedge.

Predicted winner

Villacañas

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Villacañas and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. San Clemente 2–2 Villacañas (08 Feb 2026)
2. Villacañas 0–1 San Clemente (27 Sep 2025)
3. Villacañas 3–0 San Clemente (13 Apr 2024)
4. San Clemente 0–0 Villacañas (26 Nov 2023)
5. Villacañas 2–0 San Clemente (12 Mar 2022)