Saluzzo vs Derthona Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Saluzzo win or draw, with home and draw each at 45% against only 10% for Derthona, and the comparison metrics broadly reinforce that caution rather than a clear home victory. Saluzzo's head-to-head score of 75 versus 25 and goals comparison of 64 versus 36 are the strongest supports for the double chance, and their attack rating of 57 against Derthona's 43 fits a home side expected to create more. However, Derthona's form score of 56 versus Saluzzo's 44 and their Poisson edge of 53 versus 47 qualify the advice, suggesting the visitors arrive in better recent rhythm even if the model still limits them to a 10% win probability. That tension is visible in the last-five records: Saluzzo are unbeaten with two wins and two draws in their four league games, while Derthona have three wins and a draw from four, so both teams' form is strong but Derthona's is marginally more productive. Saluzzo's goals analysis shows eight scored and four conceded across four matches, an average of 2.00 for and 1.00 against, with no clean sheet at home and scoring spread across the match rather than concentrated in one phase. Derthona's goals analysis shows six scored and three conceded, averaging 1.50 for and 0.80 against, with two clean sheets and a notable share of goals in the opening 15 minutes, which hints at a threat before Saluzzo settle. The head-to-head record is the most direct qualifier: six meetings include three draws, two Saluzzo wins and one Derthona win, and the most recent fixture on 2026-05-03 finished 1-1, so the historical edge is real but not dominant. The small samples involved—four league matches per team and a head-to-head spread across several seasons—mean these trends should be treated as indicative rather than decisive, and the absence of an under-over prediction leaves the total-goals dimension unaddressed. Overall, the evidence jointly supports the existing double chance because Saluzzo's head-to-head and attacking metrics offset Derthona's better form and Poisson rating, but the draw probability of 45% and the recent 1-1 meeting show why the model stops short of backing a Saluzzo win outright.

Predicted winner

Saluzzo

Betting advice

Double chance : Saluzzo or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Saluzzo 1–1 Derthona (03 May 2026)
2. Derthona 1–3 Saluzzo (21 Dec 2025)
3. Derthona 1–1 Saluzzo (17 Apr 2025)
4. Saluzzo 2–1 Derthona (08 Dec 2024)
5. Derthona 0–0 Saluzzo (13 Mar 2022)