Salernitana vs Bari Prediction

Match prediction

• Bari's superior form and five clean sheets in seven matches underpin the away-favouring probabilities, though Salernitana's unbeaten scoring record suggests the home side can contribute goals.
• The model's 45% draw probability matching Bari's win share justifies the double-chance advice, since neither outcome can be separated with confidence.
• Salernitana's defence rating of 14 against Bari's 86 is the starkest split, explaining why the model leans heavily away despite home advantage.
• Bari's perfect home defensive record contrasts with four goals conceded away, a vulnerability Salernitana's home attack could exploit and a reason the draw remains plausible.
• Head-to-head history is draw-heavy with recent meetings low-scoring, reinforcing caution about backing Bari for an outright win.
• Salernitana's tendency to draw and Bari's strong recent form together support covering both outcomes rather than committing to a single winner.

Predicted winner

Bari

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Bari

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Bari 0–0 Salernitana (15 Mar 2025)
2. Salernitana 0–2 Bari (10 Nov 2024)
3. Bari 1–1 Salernitana (31 Jul 2024)
4. Bari 1–1 Salernitana (07 Apr 2018)
5. Salernitana 2–2 Bari (04 Nov 2017)