Salamanca UDS vs RSD Alcalá Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Salamanca UDS a 35% home win probability and a 35% draw probability against RSD Alcalá’s 30%, which is why the advice is the cautious double chance “Salamanca UDS or draw” rather than a straight home win. That narrow edge is not clearly reinforced by the comparison metrics, where form is level at 50.00 for both sides and Alcalá holds a substantial 69.00 to 31.00 attack advantage, while Salamanca’s only clear comparison edge comes from defence at 57.00 versus 43.00. The Poisson split of 100.00 to 0.00 and the total split of 46.00 to 54.00 point in opposite directions, so the model’s own inputs are internally mixed rather than uniformly favouring the home team. Both teams have won two of three league fixtures, but Salamanca’s WWL and Alcalá’s WLW show the same inconsistency, and the goal data deepen that contrast: Alcalá have scored nine goals at 3.00 per game, including a 5-2 home win, while Salamanca have scored four at 1.30 per game and conceded only three. Salamanca’s defensive record is the stronger foundation, with one clean sheet and no home goals conceded, whereas Alcalá’s four goals against are split evenly home and away and their away scoring average drops to 1.00. The last-five records qualify the raw form: Salamanca have four wins and one loss, including a 5-3 away win at Derio, but their most recent outing was a 1-0 defeat at Conquense, while Alcalá’s last five include a 5-2 home win over Gimnástica Segoviana, a 3-0 home win over CF Talavera, and away defeats at Guadalajara and, earlier, CD Coria. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no direct meeting evidence to confirm or undermine the double chance, and the goals and head-to-head comparison fields are also zero, leaving those dimensions unavailable. Overall, the 35-35-30 probabilities and the double-chance advice look like a reasonable reflection of a close, low-sample fixture in which Salamanca’s defence and home clean sheet offset Alcalá’s stronger attack, but the level form and Alcalá’s capacity for high-scoring home wins mean the draw component carries much of the protection.

Predicted winner

Salamanca UDS

Betting advice

Double chance : Salamanca UDS or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.