Rudar vs Dravinja Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's existing output makes Rudar the winner with a combo of Rudar and +1.5 goals, but the probabilities are split evenly at 45% home and 45% draw, with only 10% for Dravinja; this suggests the model sees Rudar as the clear stronger side yet treats a draw as an equally likely outcome, so the advice carries more risk than a simple home-win recommendation.
• The comparison metrics broadly reinforce Rudar's edge: form 69 vs 31, attack 67 vs 33, defence 57 vs 43, and especially Poisson 96 vs 4 all favour the home side, while total_home 61.70 vs total_away 38.30 confirms the aggregate lean; however, the head-to-head and goals metrics run the other way (h2h 38 vs 62, goals 43 vs 57), so the model's confidence is not uniformly supported across every dimension.
• Rudar's team analysis shows a home-dominant profile: 3 wins from 3 home fixtures, no home defeats, 2 home clean sheets, and a 4-1 best home win, while all 3 losses came away; Dravinja's record is the inverse, with 0 away wins, 3 away losses, 0 clean sheets anywhere, and heavy away defeats such as 5-1, which jointly supports the home-winner component of the advice.
• The goals analysis adds nuance to the +1.5 goals component: Rudar average 2.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game, with 5 of 7 matches going over 1.5 goals, while Dravinja average only 1.00 scored but 2.40 conceded, and their matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 4 of 7; Dravinja's leaky defence (2.70 conceded at home, 2.30 away) makes a multi-goal game plausible, though Dravinja's low scoring output (0.50 away per game) means the over depends more on Rudar's attack than on a two-sided shootout.
• The last-five records show Rudar with 3 wins and 2 losses (4-3 at Brežice, 2-0 vs Triglav, 2-4 at Dren Vrhnika, 4-1 vs Bilje, 0-2 at Ilirija), while Dravinja have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (3-1 vs Bistrica, 1-5 at Tabor Sežana, 1-1 at Brežice, 1-4 vs Triglav, 0-2 at Dren Vrhnika); Rudar's recent form is stronger but includes away defeats, and Dravinja's sole recent win came at home, so the small sample does not fully eliminate the draw risk implied by the 45% draw probability.
• The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the model's home lean: across six meetings Dravinja have 3 wins to Rudar's 1, including a 1-0 Dravinja home win in October 2025 and a 2-1 Rudar home win in November 2024, with two draws; the most recent meeting at this venue ended 1-1, which is consistent with the model's elevated draw probability and suggests the h2h 38 vs 62 split should temper any reading of the advice as a straightforward Rudar victory.

Predicted winner

Rudar

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Rudar and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Rudar 1–1 Dravinja (25 Apr 2026)
2. Dravinja 1–0 Rudar (11 Oct 2025)
3. Dravinja 0–1 Rudar (11 May 2025)
4. Rudar 1–2 Dravinja (04 Nov 2024)
5. Dravinja 0–0 Rudar (12 May 2024)