RSD Alcalá vs Navalcarnero Prediction

Match prediction

• The model splits home and draw evenly at 45%, so the double-chance advice reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a clear home edge.
• Alcalá's attack and Poisson scores far exceed Navalcarnero's, yet identical defence ratings and even head-to-head records temper that advantage.
• Alcalá's form is strictly home-driven, with both wins and all eight home goals coming at home, while away they lost both matches without scoring.
• Navalcarnero's away record includes two wins and a draw in their last five, suggesting the visitors are more dangerous on the road than their overall form implies.
• Both teams concede regularly and neither keeps clean sheets consistently, supporting the +1.5 goals component despite Navalcarnero's low scoring average.
• Alcalá scores most of its goals late while Navalcarnero concedes frequently after the hour, pointing to second-half goals reinforcing the over 1.5 selection.

Predicted winner

RSD Alcalá

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : RSD Alcalá or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. RSD Alcalá 1–0 Navalcarnero (22 Mar 2026)
2. Navalcarnero 3–1 RSD Alcalá (07 Dec 2025)
3. Navalcarnero 0–1 RSD Alcalá (12 Jan 2020)
4. RSD Alcalá 0–1 Navalcarnero (25 Aug 2019)