Rostov II vs Sevastopol Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw-or-Sevastopol double chance, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for a Rostov II win, and the comparison metrics broadly reinforce that tilt through form (60 versus 40), attack (59 versus 41), Poisson (57 versus 43), goals (67 versus 33) and total (63 versus 37). The one clear counterweight is defence, which sits level at 50-50, suggesting the edge is built more on attacking and momentum indicators than on any defensive superiority. That distinction matters because Sevastopol's overall record of 17 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 23 games is stronger than Rostov II's 15-5-4 from 24, yet Rostov II's home form of 7 wins, 3 draws and only 2 defeats shows they are far from harmless at their own ground. The goals analysis adds nuance: Sevastopol average 1.90 scored and 0.90 conceded, while Rostov II average 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, so Rostov II actually carry the marginally better scoring rate despite the model's attacking split favouring the visitors. Both sides also show a tendency toward lower-scoring matches, with Sevastopol's goals-for going under 2.5 in 17 of 24 and Rostov II's in 17 of 23, which tempers any expectation of an open game and helps explain why the draw carries such a high probability. The last-five records diverge in a way that supports the advice but with caveats: Sevastopol have won all four listed matches, including 3-1 over Rubin Yalta and three 1-0 or 2-1 victories, whereas Rostov II have two wins, two draws and a heavy 0-5 home loss to Lugansk, a result that underlines their capacity for a collapse. The head-to-head record is the most lopsided evidence, with Sevastopol rated 85 versus 15 and having won three of the last seven meetings, drawn two and lost two, including a 2-1 home win in April 2026 and a 1-0 home win in October 2025. However, the two most recent meetings at Rostov II's ground produced a 0-1 Sevastopol win and a 0-0 draw, so the venue does not guarantee home advantage and the small sample of seven matches limits how much weight the head-to-head should carry. Overall, the form, attack, Poisson, goals and head-to-head evidence jointly justify the draw-or-Sevastopol advice, while the level defensive split, Rostov II's respectable home record and the low-scoring tendencies mean the 10% home-win probability may understate the hosts' chances of at least avoiding defeat.

Predicted winner

Sevastopol

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Sevastopol

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Sevastopol 2–1 Rostov II (04 Apr 2026)
2. Sevastopol 1–0 Rostov II (25 Oct 2025)
3. Rostov II 0–1 Sevastopol (27 Sep 2025)
4. Rostov II 0–0 Sevastopol (23 Aug 2025)
5. Sevastopol 2–2 Rostov II (24 May 2025)