Rosengård W vs Piteå W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Rosengård W a 45% home win probability and the draw another 45%, leaving Piteå W at just 10%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Rosengård W or draw rather than a straight home win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Rosengård's advantages in head-to-head (80 vs 20), goals (80 vs 20) and Poisson (55 vs 45) are offset by Piteå's superior form (53 vs 47) and much stronger attack rating (71 vs 29), while Rosengård's better defence (56 vs 44) and the near-even total (57.8 vs 42.2) suggest the edge is real but not commanding. The team analysis reinforces this tension: Rosengård have only 4 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses from 19 matches, with a modest 20 goals scored and 25 conceded, whereas Piteå sit on 6 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses with 23 scored and 28 conceded, so Piteå's marginally better record is built on a slightly more productive attack rather than a tighter defence. Rosengård's goal profile is notably low-scoring, averaging 1.10 goals for and 1.30 against, with 17 of 19 matches staying under 2.5 goals and a striking concentration of goals conceded late (9 in the 76-90 window), which hints at vulnerability that could keep this match close. Piteå's goals analysis shows a similar low-event pattern, averaging 1.20 for and 1.50 against, but with 10 of their 28 concessions also arriving in the 76-90 period and only one match exceeding 2.5 goals, so neither side's data points to a high-scoring blowout. The last-five records add a conflicting signal: Rosengård have won three of five, including a 4-0 away win at Eskilsminne and narrow 1-0 wins over Uppsala and Djurgården, but also lost 1-2 at Norrköping and 0-1 at home to Häcken, while Piteå have two wins, two draws and one loss, featuring a 5-1 home rout of Uppsala but a 0-1 home defeat to AIK. The head-to-head record is the strongest single argument for the home side, since Rosengård have won four of the last ten meetings and the most recent Malmö-hosted fixtures include a 4-0 win in 2024 and a 1-0 win in 2025, although Piteå won the 2026 meeting 2-1 in Piteå and have taken points at LF Arena repeatedly. Taken together, the evidence supports the double-chance advice as a hedge: Rosengård's historical dominance over Piteå and superior defensive and Poisson metrics justify favouring them not to lose, but their poor overall form, low scoring rate and Piteå's stronger attack rating mean a draw is a genuinely plausible outcome rather than a remote one.

Predicted winner

Rosengård W

Betting advice

Double chance : Rosengård W or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Piteå W 2–1 Rosengård W (10 May 2026)
2. Piteå W 0–1 Rosengård W (08 Nov 2025)
3. Rosengård W 1–0 Piteå W (23 Mar 2025)
4. Piteå W 0–1 Rosengård W (30 Sep 2024)
5. Rosengård W 4–0 Piteå W (26 May 2024)