Rosengård vs Hässleholms IF Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Hässleholms IF a 45% win probability and Rosengård 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the double-chance advice on draw or Hässleholms IF reflects a fixture the model sees as close but tilted away from a home win. That tilt is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Hässleholms IF leads on form (56 vs 44), defence (73 vs 27), Poisson (60 vs 40), head-to-head (62 vs 38), goals (58 vs 42) and total (58 vs 42), while Rosengård's only clear edge is attack at 61 vs 39. The team records qualify this: Rosengård have actually won more matches overall (13 wins to 9) and lost fewer (7 to 6), yet Hässleholms IF's 8 draws, including six away from home, point to a side that frequently avoids defeat on the road. Rosengård's scoring profile is stronger in volume, averaging 1.90 goals per game against 1.70, but they concede 1.20 per match and, more tellingly, ship 29.63% of their goals against in the opening 15 minutes, a vulnerability that could matter against a Hässleholms side that scores 30.77% of its goals after the 76th minute. Defensively the gap is starker: Rosengård's 1.20 goals-against average is better than Hässleholms IF's 1.40, but Hässleholms IF keep more clean sheets overall (5 to 7 is reversed — Rosengård have 7, Hässleholms 5) and their away clean-sheet count of four suggests they travel well. The last-five records show both teams in mixed form: Rosengård have two wins, two losses and a draw, while Hässleholms IF have three wins and two losses, including a 2-0 away win at Eskilsminne and a 2-0 home win over AFC Malmo, though their most recent outing was a 1-0 home defeat to Trollhättan. The head-to-head record is the strongest single signal for the advice, with Hässleholms IF unbeaten in the last four meetings — two 1-1 draws in 2026 and away wins in both 2025 league fixtures — and they have won five of the last ten encounters overall. However, the small sample of recent head-to-head matches, combined with Rosengård's superior win total and home advantage, means the draw carries as much weight as an away win in the model's 45-45 split, so the double chance is a cautious rather than confident call. The goals analysis supports a low-scoring expectation, with both teams' under-2.5 goal counts high (17 for Rosengård, 16 for Hässleholms IF) and no match this season exceeding 4.5 goals for either side, which further justifies avoiding a straight home or away win bet.

Predicted winner

Hässleholms IF

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Hässleholms IF

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Hässleholms IF 1–1 Rosengård (10 Apr 2026)
2. Hässleholms IF 1–1 Rosengård (07 Mar 2026)
3. Rosengård 1–2 Hässleholms IF (01 Nov 2025)
4. Hässleholms IF 0–1 Rosengård (04 Apr 2025)
5. Rosengård 1–3 Hässleholms IF (14 Oct 2023)