Rodina Moskva III vs Arsenal Tula II Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% home win and 45% draw probabilities show it expects Rodina to avoid defeat rather than dominate, which explains the win-only advice.
• Rodina's superior form, attack, and Poisson scores align with their recent four wins in five, supporting the home-side lean.
• Arsenal Tula II's three straight clean sheets show defensive resilience that could frustrate Rodina and push the outcome toward the draw probability.
• The head-to-head split of one win each and a draw, with Arsenal winning the most recent meeting, tempers confidence in a clear home victory.
• Arsenal's low scoring average and frequent failures to score suggest the away side is unlikely to win, reinforcing the win-or-draw framing.
• Rodina's tendency to concede late goals against Arsenal's late scoring threat introduces variance that the draw probability partly captures.

Predicted winner

Rodina Moskva III

Betting advice

Winner : Rodina Moskva III

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Arsenal Tula II 1–1 Rodina Moskva III (14 Jun 2026)
2. Arsenal Tula II 3–0 Rodina Moskva III (18 Oct 2025)
3. Rodina Moskva III 2–1 Arsenal Tula II (28 Jun 2025)