Russia · Second League A - Division A Gold
Rodina Moskva II vs Kaluga Prediction
· Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina
Match prediction
- Rodina Moskva II's strong recent form and superior attack ratings support the home-winner advice, though the 45% draw probability signals only modest confidence.
- Kaluga's winless record, with six draws and five defeats, explains why the model assigns them just a 10% away win chance.
- The head-to-head record favours Kaluga, a genuine counterweight to the home-side metrics and a reason the draw probability matches the home win.
- Kaluga's low-scoring profile, averaging half a goal per game, suggests the match may hinge on fine margins rather than a comfortable home victory.
- Rodina Moskva II's defensive record is only marginally better than Kaluga's, weakening the case for a decisive home performance.
- The Poisson distribution strongly favours the home side, reinforcing the winner advice despite the head-to-head and draw concerns.
- Predicted winner
- Rodina Moskva II
- Betting advice
- Winner : Rodina Moskva II
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Rodina Moskva II | Kaluga |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Attack | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| Defence | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Poisson | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| H2h | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Goals | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Total | 60.8% | 39.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
Rodina Moskva II
Recent form: WDWDWWWLWWL.
Average goals scored: 1.80 per match.
Kaluga
Recent form: DLLDDLDDDLL.
Average goals scored: 0.50 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Kaluga 0–0 Rodina Moskva II (08 Aug 2026)
- Rodina Moskva II 1–2 Kaluga (27 May 2026)
- Kaluga 1–1 Rodina Moskva II (08 Apr 2026)
- Rodina Moskva II 1–0 Kaluga (27 Sep 2025)
- Kaluga 1–0 Rodina Moskva II (16 Aug 2025)