Roda vs Waalwijk Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Waalwijk a 45% win probability and Roda only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Waalwijk rather than a straight away win. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Waalwijk leads on form (55 vs 45), attack (75 vs 25), Poisson (60 vs 40), head-to-head (62 vs 38), goals (62 vs 38) and overall total (57.80 vs 42.20), yet Roda's stronger defence score (67 vs 33) is the one clear counterweight. The team records sharpen this tension: Roda are unbeaten in seven with three wins and three draws but only seven goals scored, while Waalwijk are also unbeaten with three wins and four draws, having scored 18 goals and conceded nine. Waalwijk's last five show three straight wins before two draws, including a 6-1 home win over MVV and a 2-0 away win at Jong Ajax, whereas Roda's last five contain two wins and three draws, all low-scoring, with 1-0 wins over Vitesse and Dordrecht and a 2-2 draw with NAC Breda. The goals analysis explains the gap: Waalwijk average 2.60 goals per game and have scored in every match, while Roda average just 1.00 and have never exceeded two goals in a game, though Roda's defensive record of 0.70 conceded per game is better than Waalwijk's 1.30. Both teams' under-over profiles point away from a high-scoring affair, as neither has gone over 2.5 goals in any of their seven matches, and Roda's goals are concentrated between the 31st and 60th minute while Waalwijk score most often after the 76th. The head-to-head record supports the away side's edge, with Waalwijk winning four of the last ten meetings, including a 4-1 win at Roda in September 2025 and a 2-1 win at home in February 2026, while the two most recent league meetings in April and May 2026 both ended 1-1. The main qualification is that those recent draws and Roda's unbeaten, defensively solid profile make a repeat draw plausible, which is why the model splits the draw and away win evenly at 45% each rather than favouring Waalwijk outright.

Predicted winner

Waalwijk

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Waalwijk

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Waalwijk 1–1 Roda (01 May 2026)
2. Roda 1–1 Waalwijk (28 Apr 2026)
3. Waalwijk 1–2 Roda (13 Feb 2026)
4. Roda 1–4 Waalwijk (19 Sep 2025)
5. Roda —–— Waalwijk (27 Jul 2024)