Rio Verde vs Bom Jesus EC Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Rio Verde via a double-chance call of win or draw, with home and draw probabilities level at 45% each against just 10% for Bom Jesus, so the advice is essentially a bet against an away win rather than a strong home endorsement. That caution is echoed by the comparison metrics, where Rio Verde's form edge (60 versus 40) and defensive rating (67 versus 33) are offset by identical attack scores of 50 and a near-even Poisson split of 55 to 45. The head-to-head and goals comparison columns are dead level at 50-50 and 0-0 respectively, meaning those inputs neither reinforce nor contradict the home lean, while the aggregate totals of 56.4 to 43.6 show the overall edge is real but modest. Rio Verde's 14-game record of eight wins, four draws and two losses, including 5-1-1 at home, supports the draw-inclusive advice, and their seven clean sheets with only eight goals conceded (0.60 per game) suggest a low-scoring, controlled match is plausible. Bom Jesus are harder to dismiss than the 10% away probability implies, since they have lost only twice in 14 and drawn six, and their away form of four wins from seven is actually better than their home form. Recent form sharpens that tension: Rio Verde's last five produced two wins and three draws with just six goals, while Bom Jesus drew three straight before a 2-2 at Grêmio Anápolis, so both teams arrive hard to beat but short of a decisive attacking edge. The goals analysis reinforces the tightness, with Rio Verde averaging 1.50 goals and conceding 0.60, and Bom Jesus averaging 1.20 while conceding 0.80, and neither side has exceeded 2.5 goals in any of their 14 matches. Rio Verde's scoring is concentrated before the break, with 33.33% of their goals in the 31-45 window, whereas Bom Jesus spread theirs late and early, which could matter if the game stays level into the closing stages. Overall, the evidence supports the draw-inclusive Rio Verde advice as a reasonable reflection of a low-variance, low-scoring fixture, but the level attack and head-to-head metrics plus Bom Jesus's resilience mean the 10% away probability looks like the least secure part of the model's output.

Predicted winner

Rio Verde

Betting advice

Double chance : Rio Verde or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Bom Jesus EC 0–0 Rio Verde (09 Aug 2026)