Reipas vs MyPa Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Reipas a 45% home win and 45% draw against MyPa’s 10% away win, so the “Reipas or draw” double chance is the clear output even though the two leading probabilities are level rather than decisively separated. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Reipas’s form score of 14.00 and attack score of 17.00 sit far below MyPa’s 86.00 and 83.00, while Reipas’s defence score of 53.00 is only modestly better than MyPa’s 47.00. The Poisson and head-to-head columns pull the other way, favouring Reipas 72.00 to 28.00 and 80.00 to 20.00, and the goals comparison is split at 64.00 to 36.00 for Reipas but an even 50.00 to 50.00 overall, so the evidence is genuinely mixed rather than one-sided. Reipas’s season record of seven wins, three draws and eleven defeats across 21 matches is built almost entirely at home, where they have six wins, three draws and one loss, whereas away they have one win and ten losses; MyPa’s five wins, three draws and thirteen defeats include a 3-6-2 home split and a 2-7-1 away split. The goals analysis sharpens that home-away contrast: Reipas average 2.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded at home but 1.40 and 2.50 away, while MyPa average 1.30 scored both home and away and concede 1.70 at home versus 2.70 away, making MyPa’s away defence the more vulnerable unit. Reipas’s last five are a 0-1 loss at Union Plaani, a 0-0 home draw with PuiU Helsinki, a 1-5 loss at MyPa, a 0-1 loss at Union Plaani and a 1-2 home loss to PEPO, a run of one point from fifteen that sits awkwardly beside the model’s confidence. MyPa’s last five are a 0-3 loss at PuiU Helsinki, a 2-3 home loss to Union Plaani, a 5-1 home win over Reipas, a 2-1 home win over PuiU Helsinki and a 1-2 loss at PPJ, so their recent form is also poor but includes the most emphatic result between these sides this season. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to Reipas’s recent slump, since Reipas have won four of the last five meetings at home in this fixture sequence, including 4-2 in July 2026 and 4-1 in a February friendly, yet MyPa won the most recent league meeting 5-1 on 4 September 2026 and also won 5-0 at Reipas in May 2026. Taken together, the model’s near-even home-win and draw probabilities look like a reasonable hedge: Reipas’s home record and head-to-head edge support avoiding defeat, but their dire recent form, MyPa’s superior form and attack scores, and MyPa’s 5-1 win in the latest meeting mean the double chance is a cautious reading rather than a strong endorsement.

Predicted winner

Reipas

Betting advice

Double chance : Reipas or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. MyPa 5–1 Reipas (04 Sep 2026)
2. Reipas 4–2 MyPa (25 Jul 2026)
3. MyPa 0–5 Reipas (16 May 2026)
4. Reipas 4–1 MyPa (21 Feb 2026)
5. Reipas 4–2 MyPa (09 Aug 2025)