Recanatese vs Maceratese Prediction
· Nicola Tubaldi
Match prediction
- The model's 45% draw probability matches the home win, explaining why double chance rather than a straight home victory is advised.
- Recanatese's superior form, attack, defence and Poisson ratings support the home side, though the modest margins keep the edge short of outright dominance.
- Maceratese's 80% head-to-head score is the clearest counterweight, but it rests on only two meetings and conflicts with current form.
- Recanatese's home record of one win and two draws without defeat, including two clean sheets, reinforces the draw-inclusive advice.
- Maceratese's three losses in five and 1.70 away goals conceded per game weaken their case despite the head-to-head history.
- Both sides' low scoring totals and Recanatese's tendency to draw suggest a tight match where avoiding defeat matters more than winning.
- Predicted winner
- Recanatese
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Recanatese or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Recanatese | Maceratese |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Attack | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Defence | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Poisson | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| H2h | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Goals | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Total | 51.7% | 48.3% |
Team form and goal analysis
Recanatese
Recent form: DDWDL.
Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.
Maceratese
Recent form: LLLWD.
Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Maceratese 2–1 Recanatese (12 Apr 2026)
- Recanatese 2–2 Maceratese (30 Nov 2025)