Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Real Madrid II vs Atlético Madrid II Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's 45% draw and 45% Atlético win probabilities justify the double-chance advice, while Real Madrid II's 10% makes an outright home result unlikely.
- Atlético's superior form, attack, and Poisson scores outweigh Real Madrid II's modest defensive edge, supporting the away-leaning double chance.
- Both teams' low goal outputs and Atlético's four clean sheets in five suggest the -3.5 goals component is well supported.
- Head-to-head parity and identical goals splits show this derby is historically tight, reinforcing the draw half of the double chance.
- Real Madrid II's two failed-to-score away matches and weak attack limit their scoring threat, keeping the under-goals side plausible.
- Atlético's only loss came against Villarreal II, so their overall consistency supports avoiding a home win prediction.
- Predicted winner
- Atlético Madrid II
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : draw or Atlético Madrid II and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Real Madrid II | Atlético Madrid II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Attack | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| Defence | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Total | 45.0% | 55.0% |
Team form and goal analysis
Real Madrid II
Recent form: DWLDL.
Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.
Atlético Madrid II
Recent form: DWWDL.
Average goals scored: 1.80 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Real Madrid II 1–1 Atlético Madrid II (12 Apr 2025)
- Atlético Madrid II 1–1 Real Madrid II (02 Nov 2024)
- Atlético Madrid II 2–0 Real Madrid II (17 Mar 2024)
- Real Madrid II 2–2 Atlético Madrid II (16 Sep 2023)
- Real Madrid II 3–1 Atlético Madrid II (14 Mar 2021)