Real Cartagena vs Popayan Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's near-even probabilities (35/35/30) justify the double-chance advice, since Real Cartagena's win and draw chances combine to a clear majority.
- Popayan's superior recent form and attack ratings conflict with the home-favouring Poisson and head-to-head metrics, explaining why the model avoids backing a straight home win.
- Real Cartagena's home record of ten wins against only five losses supports their stronger home scoring average, reinforcing the home-or-draw lean.
- Popayan's away form is notably weaker than their home form, with six away defeats, which tempers their otherwise strong recent results.
- Head-to-head history is draw-heavy across recent meetings, directly supporting the draw component of the double-chance advice.
- Both teams' goal profiles skew heavily under 2.5, suggesting a tight, low-scoring contest consistent with the cautious double-chance recommendation.
- Predicted winner
- Real Cartagena
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Real Cartagena or draw
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Real Cartagena | Popayan |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Attack | 21.0% | 79.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| H2h | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| Goals | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Total | 47.7% | 52.3% |
Team form and goal analysis
Real Cartagena
Recent form: WWDWWLDWDDWDWLLDWWLWWLDWDLWWLWLDD.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Popayan
Recent form: LLDWDLLLDWDDDDLWDLLLDWWW.
Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Popayan 1–1 Real Cartagena (27 Mar 2026)
- Popayan 0–0 Real Cartagena (24 Nov 2025)
- Real Cartagena 1–1 Popayan (01 Nov 2025)
- Popayan 2–2 Real Cartagena (08 Aug 2025)
- Real Cartagena 3–2 Popayan (02 Mar 2025)