Serie D - Girone B · Italy
Real Calepina vs Brusaporto Prediction
Match prediction
The existing model leans toward Real Calepina as the winner with a combo advice of Real Calepina and over 1.5 goals, yet its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability and only 10% for Brusaporto, so the edge is far from decisive. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Brusaporto actually leads on form (55 versus 45) and defence (55 versus 45), while Real Calepina's advantages concentrate in attack (67 versus 33), Poisson (88 versus 12), head-to-head (62 versus 38), goals (62 versus 38) and the overall total (61.5 versus 38.5). The Poisson split is the most extreme signal in the data and aligns with the head-to-head and goals splits, suggesting the model's home lean rests more on scoring and historical match-up indicators than on current form or defensive solidity. Real Calepina's four-match record of WDDL shows one win, two draws and one loss, with a 5-1 home win over Pro Palazzolo standing out against a 3-1 away defeat to Piacenza, and their goals analysis shows a stark home-away split of 3.50 goals scored per home game versus 0.50 away. Brusaporto's LWLW record is equally small and symmetrical in a different way, with both wins at home (2-1 over Tritium and 1-0 over Fiorenzuola) and both defeats away, including a 2-0 loss at Leon, while their goals analysis shows 1.50 scored and only 0.50 conceded per home game against 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded away. Those venue splits matter because this fixture places Real Calepina at home, where they have scored heavily and avoided defeat across two matches, whereas Brusaporto have yet to win or keep a clean sheet on the road. The last-five records add nuance rather than clarity: Real Calepina's most recent outing was a 3-1 loss at Piacenza, while Brusaporto's most recent was a 1-0 home win over Fiorenzuola, so short-term momentum arguably favours the away side even though the venue pattern favours the home side. The head-to-head record is the longest sample available and is genuinely mixed, with ten meetings producing four draws, three Brusaporto wins and three Real Calepina wins, including a 3-3 Coppa Italia draw, a 3-0 Brusaporto away win in September 2025 and a 1-0 Real Calepina home win in January 2026. Overall, the over 1.5 goals component of the advice looks reasonably supported by Real Calepina's 3.50 home scoring average and by the 3-3 and 4-2 scorelines in this head-to-head, but the winner component is qualified by the equal 45% home and draw probabilities, Brusaporto's superior form and defence ratings, and a head-to-head series in which draws and away wins are common.
- Predicted winner
- Real Calepina
- Betting advice
- Combo Winner : Real Calepina and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Real Calepina | Brusaporto |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Attack | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Defence | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Poisson | 88.0% | 12.0% |
| H2h | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Goals | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Total | 61.5% | 38.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Real Calepina
Recent form: WDDL.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Brusaporto
Recent form: LWLW.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Real Calepina 1–0 Brusaporto (11 Jan 2026)
- Brusaporto 0–3 Real Calepina (14 Sep 2025)
- Real Calepina 3–3 Brusaporto (31 Aug 2025)
- Brusaporto 1–1 Real Calepina (09 Feb 2025)
- Real Calepina 0–1 Brusaporto (13 Oct 2024)