Real Aranjuez vs Trival Valderas Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw or a Trival Valderas win, assigning 45% to each of those outcomes and only 10% to a Real Aranjuez victory, which frames the double-chance advice as a cautious rather than emphatic call. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Trival Valderas dominates form (83 versus 17), defence (80 versus 20), goals (80 versus 20) and the overall total (78.2 versus 21.8), while the head-to-head split of 91 to 9 is the most lopsided indicator of all. The Poisson values, however, are both listed at 0.00, so that particular metric offers no discriminating signal and should not be read as support for either side. Real Aranjuez's team analysis shows a winless LLD sequence across three matches, with two defeats, no clean sheets, and a heaviest home loss of 2-5, while Trival Valderas are unbeaten in WDD with a 3-1 home win and one away clean sheet. The goals data sharpens this contrast: Aranjuez concede 2.70 per game overall and 5.00 at home, whereas Valderas concede just 0.70 per game and have yet to concede away, though their away scoring average of 0.00 hints at a blunt attack on the road. Aranjuez's last five extend beyond the current season and include heavy defeats to Galapagar and Deportivo Alavés III, so their poor form is not purely a small-sample artefact, while Valderas's last five mix goalless draws with La Nucía and Parla Escuela against a 3-1 win, suggesting a low-scoring but resilient profile. The head-to-head record is genuinely mixed rather than one-sided in raw results: Valderas won 5-1 at El Deleite in 2023 and 2-1 at home in 2021, but Aranjuez won 1-0 away in 2021 and drew 0-0 in 2022, which qualifies the extreme 91-9 weighting. Taken together, the evidence supports the draw-or-away advice mainly through Valderas's defensive solidity and Aranjuez's leaky home record, but the away side's scoreless away average and the historical competitiveness of this fixture keep the draw component plausible rather than the away win being assured.

Predicted winner

Trival Valderas

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Trival Valderas

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Real Aranjuez 1–5 Trival Valderas (06 Apr 2023)
2. Trival Valderas 0–0 Real Aranjuez (11 Dec 2022)
3. Trival Valderas 2–1 Real Aranjuez (28 Mar 2021)
4. Real Aranjuez 0–1 Trival Valderas (03 Feb 2021)