Rågsved vs Örebro Syrianska Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Örebro Syrianska a 45% win probability and Rågsved only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the double-chance advice of draw or Örebro Syrianska reflects a fixture the model sees as close but leaning away from a home win. That reading is only partly echoed by the comparison metrics, where form is dead level at 50.00 each and head-to-head and goals are likewise split 50/50, while the decisive splits appear in attack (54.00 to 46.00 in Rågsved's favour) and defence (62.00 to 38.00 in Örebro Syrianska's favour), leaving the Poisson and total scores nearly balanced at roughly 54/46 and 49.30/50.70. The team records help explain that tension: Rågsved have 10 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses from 22 games but an unusually lopsided home profile of 7 wins, 0 draws and 4 home defeats, whereas Örebro Syrianska sit on 8 wins, 2 draws and 12 losses with a stark away record of 3 wins, 0 draws and 8 away defeats. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast, since Rågsved average 1.80 goals for and 1.50 against, while Örebro Syrianska average only 1.00 for and 1.10 against, meaning the visitors' stronger defensive numbers come with a much weaker attacking output. Örebro Syrianska's scoring is also heavily back-loaded, with 30.43% of their goals in the 76-90 window and none recorded in the 46-60 band, while Rågsved concede 28.13% of their goals in that same late window, a pattern that could keep the game open rather than comfortably settled. The last-five records qualify the headline form parity: Rågsved have won three of five but lost their most recent outing 0-1 away to Nacka Iliria and were beaten 0-4 at home by Sleipner, while Örebro Syrianska have won three of five, including 1-0 at home to Nyköping and 3-0 away at Karlslund, but also lost 1-3 at home to Sleipner and 0-2 at home to Farsta. The only head-to-head meeting in the data, on 5 April 2026 at Mellringe IP, finished 1-1 between these sides, which supports the draw component of the advice but is too small a sample to carry much weight on its own. Overall, the evidence supports the existing double-chance selection mainly through Örebro Syrianska's superior defensive and Poisson scores and Rågsved's lack of home draws, yet the level form, even head-to-head and goals splits, Rågsved's stronger attack and the visitors' poor away record mean the draw half of that advice looks at least as plausible as an away win.

Predicted winner

Örebro Syrianska

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Örebro Syrianska

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Örebro Syrianska 1–1 Rågsved (05 Apr 2026)