Råde vs Lillehammer Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Lillehammer a 45% win probability and Råde only 10%, with a 45% draw, and its advice combines a draw-or-Lillehammer double chance with over 2.5 goals. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Lillehammer leads on attack (60 vs 40), goals (89 vs 11), head-to-head (100 vs 0) and overall total (57.6 vs 42.4), while Råde only edges form (53 vs 47), defence (53 vs 47) and Poisson (55 vs 45). The season records reinforce the gap: Lillehammer has 15 wins, 3 losses and no failed-to-score games across 20 matches, whereas Råde has 12 wins, 5 losses and one blank, though Råde's 8 home wins from 10 show the home side is far from harmless. Both attacks are prolific, with Råde averaging 3.50 goals per game and Lillehammer 3.70, and both defences concede around 1.5–1.8, which supports the over 2.5 element even if the exact winner is less certain. The goal-timing data adds nuance rather than a clear edge, as Råde scores most heavily in the 46–60 window (24.29%) while Lillehammer is more evenly spread and concedes 40% of its goals in the first 30 minutes. Recent form complicates the picture: Råde's last five read D-W-W-L-L, including a 1-1 draw at Fram and home defeats to Follo and a 2-3 loss at Sarpsborg 08 II, while Lillehammer's last five read W-L-W-L-L, featuring a 7-1 home win over Bjørkelangen but also a 1-3 loss at Sarpsborg 08 II and a 2-4 home defeat to Strommen. The head-to-head sample is tiny but emphatic, with Lillehammer beating Råde 8-1 at home on 30 May 2026, which explains the 100–0 head-to-head split and gives the away side a strong psychological marker. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance and over 2.5 combination more than a straight Lillehammer win, since Råde's home record and Poisson edge qualify the away side's superiority, and the small head-to-head and last-five samples mean the probabilities should be treated as indicative rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Lillehammer

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Lillehammer and +2.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+2.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Lillehammer 8–1 Råde (30 May 2026)