Quilmes vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw or a Club Atlético Güemes win, with the draw and away outcomes each at 45% against Quilmes at just 10%, and the advice pairs that double chance with under 3.5 goals. That caution about goals is well supported by the scoring profiles, since Quilmes average only 0.90 goals per match and Güemes 0.80, while neither side has seen a single match exceed 3.5 total goals across 30 fixtures each. The comparison metrics, however, are internally conflicted: Quilmes lead on form (60.00 vs 40.00), defence (57.00 vs 43.00) and Poisson (82.00 vs 18.00), yet Güemes lead on attack (67.00 vs 33.00), goals (60.00 vs 40.00) and head-to-head (62.00 vs 38.00), so the model's away lean rests more on historical and attacking indicators than on current form or defensive solidity. Quilmes' home record explains their defensive strength, with 9 clean sheets and only 6 goals conceded at home versus 21 away, but their away form is dire with 10 defeats from 15, and their last five show four losses in which they failed to score in every defeat. Güemes arrive in even poorer recent shape, having lost three of their last five without scoring in two of those defeats, and their season-long defensive numbers are the worst in this matchup at 1.70 goals conceded per game, including 28 goals shipped on the road. The head-to-head record offers the clearest counterweight to Quilmes' home advantage, as Güemes won the most recent meeting 2-1 and the last three encounters at Quilmes' ground produced two goalless draws and a single 1-0 home win, suggesting tight, low-scoring affairs rather than a home rout. Both teams' goal-timing data reinforce the under 3.5 case, with Quilmes conceding 34.62% of their goals in the 76-90 window and Güemes conceding 28% in the 61-75 window, meaning late goals are a risk but rarely enough to push totals beyond three. The small samples in the last-five records should temper confidence in either side's current trajectory, since Güemes' two draws and Quilmes' single win represent narrow slices of a 30-match season in which both teams have lost more than they have won. Overall, the evidence supports the existing draw-or-Güemes double chance mainly through head-to-head history and Güemes' superior attacking and goals metrics, while the low-scoring advice is the most consistently corroborated element across the goals analysis and both teams' under-3.5 records.

Predicted winner

Club Atlético Güemes

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Club Atlético Güemes and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Club Atlético Güemes 2–1 Quilmes (10 May 2026)
2. Quilmes 0–0 Club Atlético Güemes (23 Sep 2025)
3. Club Atlético Güemes 0–0 Quilmes (18 May 2025)
4. Quilmes 1–0 Club Atlético Güemes (28 Sep 2024)
5. Club Atlético Güemes 1–0 Quilmes (12 May 2024)