Quevilly vs Amiens Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Amiens avoiding defeat, with a 45% draw and 45% away-win probability against only 10% for Quevilly, and the advice combines that double chance with a -3.5 goals line. That split is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Amiens leads on form (56 vs 44), attack (62 vs 38), defence (86 vs 14), Poisson (67 vs 33), head-to-head (85 vs 15), goals (64 vs 36) and total (70 vs 30), although the near-equal draw and away probabilities suggest the model sees little separation between those two outcomes. The defensive gap is the most striking, and it is supported by Amiens' goals analysis: they have conceded just twice in seven games, an average of 0.30, with five clean sheets and no match exceeding 1.5 goals against. Quevilly's defensive numbers are less secure, with eight conceded at 1.10 per game and six of seven matches featuring at least one goal against, which qualifies the low-scoring advice because their home attack has produced 1.70 goals per game. The last-five records add nuance: Amiens have won three of five, including 2-0 over Orleans and 3-0 at Bastia, but also lost 1-0 at Le Puy Foot, while Quevilly have two wins, two draws and a 3-0 loss at Rouen, showing they are competitive at home but vulnerable away. The head-to-head record tilts toward Amiens with five wins in ten meetings, including a 2-1 friendly in July 2026, yet it also contains three draws and a 3-3 at this venue, so it supports Amiens' edge without making a Quevilly result implausible. The goals analysis broadly backs the -3.5 line, since neither side has seen a match go over 3.5 goals and Amiens' games have stayed under 2.5 in all seven, though Quevilly's 3-3 head-to-head draw is a reminder that this fixture has occasionally produced more. Overall, the evidence points to a low-scoring match where Amiens are the stronger side but the draw is a genuine possibility, which is consistent with the model's cautious double-chance advice rather than a confident away win.

Predicted winner

Amiens

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Amiens and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Amiens 2–1 Quevilly (18 Jul 2026)
2. Amiens 0–0 Quevilly (03 Aug 2024)
3. Quevilly 3–3 Amiens (23 Apr 2024)
4. Amiens 1–0 Quevilly (05 Aug 2023)
5. Quevilly 1–3 Amiens (26 May 2023)