Querétaro W vs Atlas W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Atlas W a double-chance edge of draw or away win, with home, draw, and away probabilities of 10%, 45%, and 45%, so the advice rests on Querétaro W being unlikely to win rather than on Atlas W being a clear favourite. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Atlas W leads on form (70 versus 30), Poisson (82 versus 18), head-to-head (93 versus 7), goals (79 versus 21), and overall total (71 versus 29), while Querétaro W only edges attack (54 versus 46) and defence (44 versus 56). The team analysis qualifies this sharply, however, because both sides have won just two of eight matches, and Atlas W's record is built on three draws and only two home wins, with no away victories at all. Querétaro W's form line of LLWLLLWL is worse than Atlas W's LDDWLLWD, yet Querétaro W's two wins both came away from home, which complicates the assumption that hosting is an advantage here. The goals analysis reinforces the caution around a decisive Atlas W win: Querétaro W average only 1.30 goals overall and 0.30 at home, while Atlas W average 1.10 overall and have scored more than 2.5 goals in none of their eight matches. Defensively, both leak heavily, with Querétaro W conceding 2.50 per match and Atlas W 2.10, and Atlas W's away concession rate of 3.00 is notably worse than their home rate of 1.30. The last-five records show Querétaro W losing four of five, including 0-4 and 0-5 defeats, but also a 6-2 away win, while Atlas W's five include two wins, a 2-2 draw at América W, a 0-4 home loss, and a 6-1 away loss. The head-to-head record is the strongest single support for the advice, since Atlas W have won five of the last ten meetings, including a 1-0 win at Querétaro W in March 2026, with two draws and three Querétaro W wins. Even so, the most recent head-to-head result and Atlas W's poor away form pull in opposite directions, which is consistent with a draw carrying the same 45% probability as an Atlas W win. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance mainly because Querétaro W's home scoring and form are so weak, but the low win probability for either side and Atlas W's winless away record mean the draw component carries much of the weight.

Predicted winner

Atlas W

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Atlas W

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Querétaro W 0–1 Atlas W (13 Mar 2026)
2. Atlas W 6–2 Querétaro W (06 Sep 2025)
3. Atlas W 1–0 Querétaro W (19 Mar 2025)
4. Querétaro W 1–1 Atlas W (05 Oct 2024)
5. Querétaro W 0–2 Atlas W (30 Apr 2024)