Portland Thorns W vs Houston Dash W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Portland Thorns W a 45% home win probability and the draw another 45%, leaving Houston Dash W at just 10%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Portland or the draw rather than a straight home win. That caution is echoed by the comparison metrics, where Portland leads on form (73 vs 27), attack (73 vs 27), Poisson (79 vs 21), head-to-head (80 vs 20) and goals (76 vs 24), yet the defence gap is far narrower at 58 vs 42, hinting that Houston is not entirely without resistance. Portland's season record of 12 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses is built on a pronounced home split of 7 wins, 4 draws and only 1 defeat in 12, while Houston's 8 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses include just 3 away wins against 8 away defeats. The goals analysis reinforces that asymmetry: Portland concedes only 0.70 per home match versus 2.00 away, whereas Houston scores 1.60 at home but only 0.90 on the road, so the venue effect matters more than the raw totals. Portland's 42 goals are spread unusually early, with 26.83% arriving in the first 15 minutes, while Houston's 31 goals cluster late (30.30% in the 76-90 window), suggesting different risk profiles if the game stays close. Recent form is more mixed than the season-long picture: Portland's last five read W-D-L-D-W, including a 4-1 win at Orlando but also a 1-2 home loss to Washington, while Houston's last five are W-L-L-L-L, with the single win a 2-1 away result at Boston. The head-to-head record is the strongest single support for the advice, since Portland has won three of the last four meetings, including 2-0 at Providence Park in November 2025 and 4-1 there in April 2024, though Houston's 4-1 win in May 2025 and its 2021-2022 away successes show the fixture is not reliably one-sided. Houston's 9 failed-to-score matches and 5 clean sheets contrast with Portland's 2 failed-to-score matches and 9 clean sheets, which helps explain why the model leans toward Portland avoiding defeat but still assigns a substantial 45% draw probability. Overall, the evidence coheres around Portland being the stronger side with a clear home advantage, but the narrow defensive margin, Portland's recent wobble and Houston's occasional away threat mean the double-chance framing is a hedge rather than a confident outright win.

Predicted winner

Portland Thorns W

Betting advice

Double chance : Portland Thorns W or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Portland Thorns W 2–0 Houston Dash W (02 Nov 2025)
2. Houston Dash W 1–4 Portland Thorns W (17 May 2025)
3. Houston Dash W 0–2 Portland Thorns W (18 May 2024)
4. Portland Thorns W 4–1 Houston Dash W (21 Apr 2024)
5. Houston Dash W 2–1 Portland Thorns W (13 May 2023)