Popayan vs Union Magdalena Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% away win and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, since Popayan's 10% win probability is the clear outlier.
• Popayan's superior form, attack, and defence ratings conflict with the model's low home probability, suggesting recent form may be overweighted relative to other evidence.
• Union Magdalena's head-to-head and goals dominance, plus a stronger Poisson estimate, supports their favoured status despite Popayan's better comparison metrics.
• Popayan's five-match unbeaten run, including four wins, makes the 10% home win probability look harsh and explains why the draw is covered.
• Union Magdalena's 15 wins from 31 matches and nine clean sheets indicate a defensively reliable side capable of avoiding defeat away.
• Both teams' low-scoring profiles, with most matches under 2.5 goals, reinforce that a draw is a realistic component of the double chance.

Predicted winner

Union Magdalena

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Union Magdalena

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Union Magdalena 0–2 Popayan (09 Feb 2026)
2. Union Magdalena 1–0 Popayan (23 Oct 2024)
3. Popayan 0–0 Union Magdalena (12 May 2024)
4. Union Magdalena 3–0 Popayan (22 Feb 2023)
5. Popayan 0–1 Union Magdalena (16 Feb 2023)