Polonia Środa vs Elana Toruń Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Polonia Środa, pairing a 45% home win probability with a 45% draw and only 10% for Elana Toruń, and its advice of a Polonia win combined with over 1.5 goals reflects that same tilt. That tilt is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Polonia dominate form (92 versus 8), attack (79 versus 21), Poisson (79 versus 21), head-to-head (80 versus 20), goals (63 versus 37) and the overall total (73.80 versus 26.20), leaving defence as the one genuinely level measure at 50 apiece. The team analysis explains much of that gap: Polonia are unbeaten across nine matches with seven wins and two draws, including a six-game winning streak, whereas Elana have one win, three draws and five defeats, having endured a five-match losing run. Polonia's goals analysis adds further weight, with 27 goals at 3.00 per game and only 14 conceded at 1.60, while Elana have scored 11 at 1.20 and shipped 19 at 2.10, so the attacking contrast is substantial rather than marginal. The last-five records nonetheless introduce some caution, because Polonia's sequence of three wins and two draws includes a 4-3 home win over Unia Swarzędz and a 4-4 draw at Grom Nowy Staw, suggesting their defensive record is not airtight. Elana's last five are more troubling, with four defeats and a goalless draw against Lech Poznań II, and their 5-1 loss at Kalisz shows how heavily they can concede when the game opens up. The head-to-head record is more balanced than the aggregate metrics imply, since Polonia have won three of the last six completed meetings but Elana won the most recent one 3-0 in March 2026 and also triumphed 3-1 in May 2025. That recent reversal qualifies the strength of the home-side case, and the 45% draw probability is a reminder that the model itself does not treat a Polonia victory as assured. The over 1.5 goals component looks better supported, as Polonia have gone over 1.5 in seven of nine matches and Elana have done so in three of nine while conceding at least twice in six of nine, though Elana's tendency toward low-scoring games means the goals element carries its own uncertainty.

Predicted winner

Polonia Środa

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Polonia Środa and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Elana Toruń 0–3 Polonia Środa (08 Mar 2026)
2. Polonia Środa 1–0 Elana Toruń (22 Aug 2025)
3. Elana Toruń 3–1 Polonia Środa (24 May 2025)
4. Polonia Środa 4–2 Elana Toruń (31 Oct 2024)
5. Elana Toruń 2–3 Polonia Środa (16 Mar 2024)