Podvinci vs Ljutomer Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's existing output gives Podvinci a 45% win probability and Ljutomer only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Podvinci or draw rather than a straight home win; the comparison metrics broadly reinforce that lean, with Podvinci ahead on form (64 vs 36), attack (56 vs 44), Poisson (69 vs 31), goals (67 vs 33) and especially head-to-head (80 vs 20), while Ljutomer's only comparative edge is defence (59 vs 41).
• The head-to-head record is the strongest single signal but also the smallest sample: Podvinci won the August 2025 meeting 1-0 at home, while the March 2026 return in Ljutomer finished 1-1, so the 80-20 split rests on just two matches and both were low-scoring, which supports Podvinci's edge without implying dominance and is consistent with the draw carrying as much probability as a home win.
• Podvinci's last five show a genuinely mixed profile rather than steady form: three straight wins (4-1 over Hajdina, 2-0 at NK Ormoz, 2-0 over Korotan Prevalje) were followed by a 1-1 draw at Šampion Celje and an 8-1 collapse at Šmartno, so the 64 form score and the 41 defence score both look like averages of very different performances, and the away defence is the clear weak point behind Ljutomer's defensive edge.
• Ljutomer's last five are winless in four (1-1 at Korotan Prevalje, 1-1 with NK Ormoz, 1-3 at Hajdina, 1-3 at Odranci) after a 3-0 home win over Šampion Celje, and their season splits sharply by venue: 2.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per home game versus 1.00 scored and 2.30 conceded away, with no away wins in three attempts, which is the main reason the model discounts them despite their superior defensive comparison score.
• Both teams have scored 11 goals across seven games (1.60 per match), but the goal-timing and under/over data point to a tighter game than the attacking comparison suggests: Podvinci's goals cluster late (33% in the 61-75 window) while Ljutomer score 50% in the 31-45 window, and each side has gone under 2.5 goals in six of seven matches, so the 45% draw probability is consistent with a low-scoring, finely balanced fixture rather than an open home win.
• The main tension in the evidence is between Podvinci's broad statistical superiority and the fragility shown by their 8-1 away defeat and their 1-3 home loss, against a Ljutomer side that is hard to beat at home but has conceded 2.30 per away game; because the model's own probabilities put the draw level with a Podvinci win, the double-chance advice reads as a hedge against that inconsistency rather than a confident call on a home victory.

Predicted winner

Podvinci

Betting advice

Double chance : Podvinci or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ljutomer 1–1 Podvinci (07 Mar 2026)
2. Podvinci 1–0 Ljutomer (23 Aug 2025)