Poland · III Liga - Group 4

Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Star Starachowice Prediction

Podlasie Biała Podlaska badgePodlasie Biała Podlaska vs Star Starachowice badgeStar Starachowice

Match prediction

  • The model's 45% away and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, while Podlasie's 10% home win probability reflects their weak overall profile.
  • Star Starachowice's superior form, attack, and head-to-head metrics support their edge, though the equal draw probability signals genuine uncertainty.
  • Podlasie's strong home record of two wins and two draws without defeat conflicts with their poor away form, explaining why the model still assigns them some home threat.
  • Star's away record shows no wins and four failures to score, which tempers the away-win probability and makes the draw component of the advice essential.
  • Both teams' goal data show low-scoring tendencies, with neither exceeding 2.5 goals in any match, reinforcing the cautious double-chance rather than a confident away victory.
  • The head-to-head history is balanced with two draws and alternating wins, supporting the model's decision to hedge between draw and away victory.
Predicted winner
Star Starachowice
Betting advice
Double chance : draw or Star Starachowice
Home win probability
10%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
45%
Goals market
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Prediction comparison

FactorPodlasie Biała PodlaskaStar Starachowice
Form44.0%56.0%
Attack33.0%67.0%
Defence54.0%46.0%
Poisson88.0%12.0%
H2h38.0%62.0%
Goals36.0%64.0%
Total48.8%51.2%

Team form and goal analysis

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Recent form: LDWWLDLWLL.

Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.

Star Starachowice

Recent form: LDLWDLDLDW.

Average goals scored: 1.10 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Star Starachowice 1–1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska (23 May 2026)
  2. Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2–1 Star Starachowice (08 Nov 2025)
  3. Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1–1 Star Starachowice (12 Apr 2025)
  4. Star Starachowice 1–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska (14 Sep 2024)
  5. Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0–3 Star Starachowice (10 May 2024)
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