Pobla Mafumet vs Vilanova Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Vilanova a 45% chance of winning and the draw the same 45%, leaving Pobla Mafumet at just 10%, which frames the advice of a draw-or-Vilanova double chance combined with under 3.5 goals as a cautious lean rather than a strong call. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Pobla Mafumet actually leads on form (55.00 vs 45.00) and attack (56.00 vs 44.00) while defence is dead level at 50.00, so the raw team-quality indicators do not obviously favour the away side. The Poisson column is the clearest counterweight, reading 0.00 for the home team against 100.00 for Vilanova, and the aggregate totals of 53.70 versus 46.30 show the same split, meaning the model's edge for Vilanova rests on distributional modelling rather than recent form. Both teams' goal profiles support the low-scoring half of the advice: Pobla Mafumet average 1.70 goals for and 1.00 against across three games, while Vilanova average 1.30 for and 1.00 against, and neither side has seen a match go over 3.5 goals. Vilanova's defensive record is the more interesting nuance, since their 1.00 goals-against average is entirely away from home (0.00 conceded on the road) with all three goals against coming in home fixtures, hinting their away setup is the more compact one. The last-five records add a small-sample caveat, as Pobla Mafumet's sequence of LWW includes two wins from the current 2026-27 campaign plus older 2024 results, while Vilanova's DWD shows an unbeaten current run of one win and two draws, including a 1-0 away win at Mollerussa. Vilanova's clean sheet away at Mollerussa and their failure to score in only one of the listed matches align with the under 3.5 element, whereas Pobla Mafumet have scored in every listed fixture but kept no clean sheets, suggesting both teams finding the net is plausible even in a low total. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical meeting data to either confirm or contradict the model's away lean, which leaves the Poisson and total metrics carrying most of the analytical weight. Overall, the evidence is internally conflicted: form and attack favour the home side, the model's probabilities and Poisson strongly favour Vilanova, and the goal data supports a tight, low-scoring game, so the double chance plus under 3.5 advice looks like a reasonable hedge rather than a confident prediction.

Predicted winner

Vilanova

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Vilanova and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.