Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito Prediction
· Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi
Match prediction
- The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify double chance rather than a straight win, since neither outcome dominates.
- Plaza Colonia's superior recent form and Poisson edge support the home side, though Cerrito's head-to-head and goals records qualify that advantage.
- Cerrito's away weakness is stark: one away win all season and 1.60 goals conceded per away match undermines their counter-case.
- Plaza Colonia's strong home defence, conceding only 0.60 per home game, makes a draw the most plausible alternative to a home win.
- Both attacks score equally in comparison metrics, so the edge rests on defence and form rather than attacking superiority.
- The 45% draw probability reflects Cerrito's resilience, with eleven draws and only seven losses across twenty-six matches.
- Predicted winner
- Plaza Colonia
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Plaza Colonia or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Plaza Colonia | Cerrito |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| Poisson | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| H2h | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Goals | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Total | 58.5% | 41.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Plaza Colonia
Recent form: DWWDDWLWWLDWLLWLWWDWDLWWDD.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Cerrito
Recent form: WDWLDDDDWWWLLWDWDDLDWLLDDL.
Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Cerrito 1–0 Plaza Colonia (28 Jun 2026)
- Plaza Colonia 1–0 Cerrito (10 Nov 2024)
- Cerrito 0–1 Plaza Colonia (20 Jul 2024)
- Plaza Colonia 1–2 Cerrito (30 Mar 2024)
- Plaza Colonia 1–3 Cerrito (23 Oct 2022)