Platges Calvià vs Cardassar Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Cardassar win, with the probabilities split evenly between an away victory and a draw at 45% each and only 10% for a Platges Calvià home win, so the advice is best read as a narrow preference rather than a clear edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Cardassar dominates on form (70 versus 30), defence (80 versus 20), Poisson (89 versus 11), head-to-head (100 versus 0), goals (80 versus 20) and overall total (72.6 versus 27.4), yet Platges Calvià actually leads the attack metric 56 to 44, a conflicting signal that undercuts any assumption of one-sided control. The team analysis explains part of that tension: Platges Calvià's LLW record over three matches includes a 3-0 away win at Binissalem but also two defeats, while Cardassar's DWW is unbeaten with two clean sheets at home and no losses, though the sample is only three games for each side. Cardassar's defensive numbers are notably stronger, conceding just one goal in three matches for a 0.30 average, whereas Platges Calvià have conceded four at a 1.30 average, and Cardassar's goals-against profile shows that single concession arriving in the 31-45 window. Platges Calvià's goal distribution is spread across four separate periods at 25% each, which suggests they can score at various stages, but their 2.00 home goals-against average and lack of a home clean sheet point to vulnerability at this venue. The goals analysis also shows both teams rarely involved in high-scoring games, with neither side exceeding 2.5 goals in any of their three matches, so the low-scoring pattern is consistent with the draw-heavy probability rather than a comfortable away win. The last-five records add a longer view: Platges Calvià have lost three of five, including a 1-3 defeat to Cardassar in May 2026, while Cardassar have won three, drawn one and lost one, their only loss a 1-3 at Formentera. The head-to-head record is small but entirely one-sided, with Cardassar winning both meetings, 3-1 at home and 1-0 away at Platges Calvià, which supports the away preference while also showing the reverse fixture was decided by a single goal. Overall, the evidence points toward Cardassar being the more reliable side and justifies the existing advice, but the even draw probability, Platges Calvià's superior attack metric and the narrow 1-0 margin in the most recent away meeting mean this should be treated as a modest lean rather than a confident prediction.

Predicted winner

Cardassar

Betting advice

Winner : Cardassar

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Cardassar 3–1 Platges Calvià (10 May 2026)
2. Platges Calvià 0–1 Cardassar (10 Jan 2026)