Pistoiese vs Sant'Angelo Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model favours Pistoiese as the winner, with a 50% home probability and a 50% draw probability leaving Sant'Angelo at 0%, a split that already hints the advice rests on avoiding defeat rather than on a decisive edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Pistoiese leads on form (67 versus 33), attack (73 versus 27), defence (75 versus 25), head-to-head (75 versus 25), goals (67 versus 33) and overall total (71.40 versus 28.60), while the Poisson split of 100 to 0 is the most extreme reading in the dataset. Pistoiese's team analysis supports that dominance with a four-match winning run, four wins from four, three clean sheets and no failure to score, including a 5-0 home win and a 1-3 away win. Sant'Angelo's profile is far more passive but not broken, since they are unbeaten across four matches with three draws and one away win, one clean sheet and only one blank in front of goal. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast: Pistoiese average 2.80 goals scored and just 0.30 conceded, with their only concession arriving in the 76-90 window, whereas Sant'Angelo average 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, with two of their three goals against falling between minutes 61 and 75. The last-five records broadly agree with the season samples, as Pistoiese have won four and drawn one while scoring in four of those games, and Sant'Angelo have drawn four and won one, including a 2-2 draw at Lentigione in May. The head-to-head record is the main qualifier to the home case, because although Pistoiese won 4-1 at home in November 2025, Sant'Angelo won the most recent meeting 3-1 in March 2026 and also won 1-0 in September 2022, with two draws in 2023. With no under-over selection available and no venue name supplied, the evidence points toward Pistoiese avoiding defeat rather than guaranteeing a win, especially since the 50% draw probability and Sant'Angelo's habit of drawing suggest the away side's resilience could frustrate a short sample of four matches.

Predicted winner

Pistoiese

Betting advice

Winner : Pistoiese

Home win probability

50%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

0%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Sant'Angelo 1–3 Pistoiese (29 Mar 2026)
2. Pistoiese 4–1 Sant'Angelo (16 Nov 2025)
3. Sant'Angelo —–— Pistoiese (21 Apr 2024)
4. Pistoiese 1–1 Sant'Angelo (10 Dec 2023)
5. Pistoiese 2–2 Sant'Angelo (25 Jan 2023)